Articles

A NEWECONOMIC PARADIGM

Authors: Yaroslav Yalovenko, Head of the Global Economy and International Institutions Group; Aleksei Guryanov, Lead Analyst, Global Economy and International Institutions Group (Centre for Cross-Sectoral Expertise “Third Rome,” Presidential Academy, RANEPA)
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION THAT EXTENDS BEYOND CYCLICAL CRISES AND CONJUNCTURAL FLUCTUATIONS. THE CONVERGENCE OF MEGATRENDS—PLATFORMISATION, THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE, DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS, AND CHANGING HUMAN CAPITAL MODELS—IS SHAPING A NEW CONFIGURATION OF THE GLOBAL SYSTEM.
This article summarises the key theses and expert perspectives presented during a public lecture by Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Head of the Administration of the Russian President, at the January Expert Dialogues held in Moscow on January 30, 2026. The lecture explored the global megatrends reshaping the international economic framework and defining the new role for the Global Majority in these processes.

HOW MEGATRENDS RESHAPE RUSSIA AND GLOBAL MAJORITY

Global economic dynamics are opening new opportunities for the Global Majority and BRICS+ nations. In this evolving landscape, Russia acts as an integral element of an emerging architecture—a nation that has retained a full spectrum of strategic capabilities and is equipped to offer infrastructure, technological, and financial solutions.

GLOBAL MAJORITY AS DRIVER OF WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH

The economic logic of global developments points to fundamental shifts in the global balance of power. This is not about the collapse of the global economic system, but rather a shift in its organisational logic. While the model of recent decades was built around integrating production chains to serve developed nations, today, global economic growth is increasingly shifting towards the Global Majority.
Structural constraints in developed economies are driving this shift. By the mid-2020s, the United States and several EU countries have been grappling with historically high debt burdens, exacerbated by ageing populations. This is reducing room for economic growth, leaving the “old” leaders behind and robbing them of the ability to “push” the global economy forward.
Against this backdrop, the economic role of the Global Majority is steadily rising. The aggregated GDP of BRICS nations by purchasing power parity already accounts for roughly 40% of global output—outpacing the G7’s share (around 30%). By 2040, Asia alone is projected to raise its share of the global economy from roughly 25% to 35%, cementing a new configuration of global GDP. This signals a shift in demand structures, investment flows, and technological development.
Trade flows are following suit. Between 2002 and 2024, BRICS’ share in global trade in goods more than doubled. In 2024, trade turnover among BRICS+ nations exceeded USD 800 billion, an increase of over 70% in five years. Meanwhile, South–South exchanges are growing, as regional agreements and integration blocs— such as the African Continental Free Trade Area or ASEAN’s digital initiatives—create independent economic spaces with their own standards and rules.
Between 2002 and 2024, BRICS’s share in global trade in goods more than doubled, with trade turnover exceeding USD 800 billion in 2024— a rise of more than 70% over five years.
A key catalyst of global change is the technological potential of the Global Majority, rapidly catching up with developed nations. In the early 2000s, BRICS accounted for about 5% of global high-tech exports; by 2022, their share had surged to 38%. New centres of technological leadership are emerging: China has become the global leader in AI patents, surpassing the United States, while India now holds around 10% of the global software market. Russia, meanwhile, is spearheading nuclear power plant construction worldwide and accounts for roughly 90% of the global market.
A fundamental driver of the Global Majority’s rising leadership is demography. In 2024, it was home to roughly 6.95 billion people (85.5% of the world’s population), compared to just 1.17 billion (14.3%) in developed nations. Meanwhile, developed economies are deep in the era of rapid ageing: Japan alone lost over a million people between 2023 and 2024, while South Korea’s population could shrink by nearly 60% by the turn of the century.
This new paradigm of globalisation is reshaping the logic of global economic interdependence. The new global economy architecture is evolving not around a single centre, but around a network of interconnected hubs—where the Global Majority plays an increasingly pivotal part.

PLATFORMISATION AS NEW COMPETITIVENESS DRIVER

A defining dimension of economic competitiveness in this new global paradigm of globalisation is the rise of national sovereign platforms. The industrial era was defined by control over resources and production capacities. In the digital age, a country’s position is increasingly determined by control over data, algorithms, and interaction infrastructure. Economic power is shifting from assets ownership to information flow management.
This is driven by objective changes—the modern economy is transitioning from labour automation to institutional automation. Digital platforms are becoming the “operating systems” of industries, integrating an infrastructure layer (standards, data storage and processing, identification) and a management layer (ranking, pricing, scoring, and access allocation). Under this model, platforms set the rules of the game, define interaction protocols, and distribute rents among ecosystem participants.
Platforms today can coordinate millions of operations in real time, reducing transaction costs and displacing traditional intermediaries. Their financial performance and operational efficiency often surpass those of traditional corporations—and the largest among these platforms rival the scale of entire economies.
A nation’s ability to rally other countries around its sovereign platform solutions will shape the nature of geo-economic competition.
At the same time, the risk of “technological colonization” looms large. States lacking their own critical digital infrastructure components become dependent on external platforms and standards. Even localising servers does not guarantee autonomy if hardware, operating systems, app stores, and key algorithms remain under external control. In the platform era, sovereignty loses its territorial moorings, and those who first achieve critical mass and deliver the best solutions reap the rewards.

Russia is steadily building advanced expertise in IT, fintech, and digital infrastructure. The country has built major marketplaces, payment services, and transport ecosystems; large-scale digital government platforms have been implemented across sectors (e.g. the Unified Medical Information Analysis System in healthcare). This growing domestic platform layer fosters new technological partnerships with foreign countries, helping them build the frameworks of national sovereignty through solutions that cannot be switched off for political reasons.
A projected demographic decline will reshape the age structure of populations— an increase in the share of elderly cohorts alongside a shrinking working age population—which will place greater strain on pension and healthcare systems.

LIMITS OF TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM: WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

The traditional financial architecture, shaped in the second half of the 20th century, is entering a phase of structural transformation. This is not merely temporary turbulence, but the cumulative effect of systemic contradictions eroding confidence in the existing model.
Global public debt has surged to a historic high, while debt growth no Source: World Economic Forum longer translates into comparable gains in real productivity.
Another factor is the “weaponization” of settlement infrastructure. Sanctions, restricted access to payment systems, and frozen assets have exposed the global financial system as anything but neutral. An infrastructure once designed as a universal intermediary has become a tool of geo-economic pressure—reshaping risk perceptions and accelerating the search for alternatives.
Finally, the rapid rise of decentralised platform solutions is reshaping finance. Major digital ecosystems are taking on roles once exclusive to banks. Chief among these is payments, with an ever-greater share now executed through cryptocurrencies.
This trend will extend to lending, scoring, and asset management, eroding the role of traditional banks as intermediaries while concentrating control over monetary flows.
This is more than a symbolic “dollar rejection,” but an institutional phenomenon. The dollar’s share of global currency reserves has fallen from around 70% in the early 2000s to about 56% by the mid-2020s. Meanwhile, the use of national currencies in bilateral trade is rising, and regional clearing mechanisms are expanding.
Russia has paved its way towards establishing of alternative settlement mechanisms and diversifying the currency structure of its foreign trade. Yet this process extends far beyond a single nation—it reflects a broader trend: the drive among states to reduce reliance on infrastructure now perceived as politically vulnerable.
The limits of the old financial system are, therefore, becoming an opportunity. Ebbing trust in traditional institutions is clearing the way for a reconfiguration of the global monetary architecture, where central bank digital currencies and other “new finance” instruments will play a greater role.

DEMOGRAPHY

Beyond technological drivers, demography is emerging as a defining factor in understanding the world’s changing architecture. UN forecasts suggest that global population will peak towards the end of this century and then enter a gradual decline. The reality, however, may be that this fall happens much earlier—by the 2050s— and will be far sharper.
This is not merely a population decline, but a shift in its age structure: a sharp rise in the share of elderly cohorts alongside a shrinking working-age population. A dwindling working-age population intensifies pressure on pension and healthcare systems, creating a form of “fiscal cannibalism,” where escalating social obligations displace investment spending. This cuts fiscal space for infrastructure, education, and technological investment, amplifying long-term growth constraints.
In this respect, the Global Majority retains greater resilience. It is here that, in relative terms, most children are born—despite an overall global decline in absolute births. This means a more balanced age structure, broader opportunities to expand the labour market, higher domestic consumption, and a larger tax base— provided human capital is developed effectively.

HUMAN CAPITAL

In turn, the logic behind human capital will change as technology rapidly advances and the labour market adjusts.
Amid the AI boom, middle tier professions will be “washed out,” with demand surging for both highly skilled specialists and manual labour. Meanwhile, the share of tasks involving AI will grow inevitably.
The core competence will be the ability to interact with AI, manage algorithmic systems, and retain agency in the face of automation. This calls for mastery of meta-skills: critical thinking, systems analysis, digital literacy, and adaptability.
The strategic imperative is clear: establishing a system of lifelong learning. Individual career trajectory in the 21st century may shift three or four times over a lifetime, demanding a shift from the “education—work—retirement” paradigm to one of continuous skill building. States that institutionalise lifelong learning and incorporate it in social policy will gain a competitive edge.
The changes under way are unprecedented: we find ourselves in a phase of globalisation where the new rules are being written.
For each nation, asserting national sovereignty hinges on partnerships with states that boast a full spectrum of strategic capabilities. In this context, BRICS+ can serve as an institutional platform for coordinating the Global Majority. Russia stands among the key architects of BRICS+’s development.
The Global Majority boasts demographic potential, growing markets, and rapid industrialization. Russia brings infrastructure and technological solutions, along with the necessary resource base. Such a complementary model can forge a resilient development strategy for the Global Majority amid the turbulence of transitioning to a new global economic paradigm.
2026-04-16 14:55 Publications №7 №7 2026 🔖 PUBLICATIONS GLOBAL TRENDS