IVAN MOISEEV. MODERN ASTRONAUTICS: HISTORY, PROBLEMS, PROSPECTS
Over the past 10 years, the world space industry has been in a state of rapid growth, accompanied with serious structural changes. At the same time, industries related to space technologies are certainly one of the most promising innovative areas for cooperation in the Eurasian space. Russia objectively has quite high competencies and serious technological potential.
This article – written specifically for the ‘Eurasian Dialogue’ magazine by the Head of the Institute of Space Policy, Scientific Director of the Moscow Space Club, Ivan Moiseev – is about the history, situation and serious challenges of the development of the space industry in the Russian Federation.
HISTORY OF ASTRONAUTICS
The space age began almost 67 years ago on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik One. During this time, astronautics has gone from PS-1 (the simplest Sputnik-1) and the first photographs of the far side of the Moon to the complex studies of the Pluto system and the Kuiper Belt at the edge of the Solar System, from Yuri Gagarin’s 108-minute flight to many years of work on the International Space Station. But the road to space was uneven, there were ups and downs.
We can highlight the following characteristic periods of the development of astronautics.
Stage 1. 1957-1966. The USSR and the USA are rapidly expanding satellite constellations, actively exploring a new field of activity. The main tasks of the first stage are testing new technologies, determining the capabilities of space assets.
Stage 2. 1967-1985. During this period, the nature of space activities of the USSR and the USA diverged. The USA, having determined the main directions for the applied use of spacecraft, took the path of increasing their active life and improving their quality characteristics. Large space projects are being implemented (Apollo, SkyLab, Space Shuttle), providing important results with a small number of launches. In the USSR, the production of launch vehicles for frequent launches of short-lived satellites, primarily military ones, is rapidly increasing.
Stage 3. 1986-1995. Perestroika in the USSR, the emergence and growth of the economic crisis; refusal of the desire for military parity with the United States, as a result – a sharp reduction in the number of launches in the interests of the Ministry of Defense. In 1991, the place of the USSR was taken by the Russian Federation, but this did not affect the intensity of launches; the decline continues at the same speed.
Stage 4. 1996-2004. Stabilization of the number of launches in the Russian Federation, progress is ensured by an increase in the quality of spacecraft. There is a noticeable decline in US launch activity – it is more profitable to make satellites and buy launch services from other countries.
Stage 5. 2005-2015. The rapid rise in global space activity, driven by the emergence of new actors (‘Private Space’ or NewSpace), as well as the rapid growth of the Chinese space program.
Stage 6. From 2015 to the present. Accelerating growth in global space activity. Almost complete withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the international space launch market, and a decrease in the frequency of launches, as a consequence.
At the end of the historical section, we can summarize the digital results of space activities. In total, during the period from October 4, 1957 to January 1, 2024, 10 countries of the world carried out 6,170 launches of launch vehicles with a total launch weight of 2 million 110 thousand tons. In the interests of 98 countries of the world, 17,443 spacecraft with a total mass of 35,942 tons were launched into Earth orbit and beyond.
TASKS OF SPACE ACTIVITIES
A logical question arises here – what is all this for? The system of goals and objectives of space activities changes over time; in recent years it has noticeably expanded and become more complex.
Figure 2 shows a simplified diagram of groups of problems solved by space means as of today. In the diagram above, each block represents a large class of problems solved by different technical methods, but united by a main objective function.
Fig. 2. Diagram of groups of tasks solved by space means
For the formation of the country’s space policy, an important point is the division of applied tasks into ‘economic’ and ‘state’. The tasks of the ‘state’ group can only be solved at the expense of the state budget. There is an important feature here in using the results of solving these problems.
If the results of the ‘military’ task group are used by the state that pays for their solution, the results of the meteorology’ and ‘navigation’ group of tasks (GPS, GLONASS systems, for example) are used by citizens and organizations around the world for free. This leads to a paradoxical but inevitable effect.
For example, the creation and maintenance of GPS and GLONASS systems is paid for from the budgets of the USA and the Russian Federation, but profits from the operation of these systems are received by private companies in the USA, Switzerland, Taiwan and other countries.
The tasks of the ‘economic’ group can be solved at the expense of the profits of the enterprises that deal with them.
This does not exclude the participation of the state as a customer of the results of space activities and as a stimulator of their development (subsidies, grants). But if the state completely takes upon itself the financing of potentially profitable areas of space activity, this leads to serious negative consequences – stagnation, a decrease in labor productivity, and abuses in the expenditure of budget funds.
To present the comparative share of space activity tasks, we will have to further simplify the diagram in Fig. 2, reducing it to linear.
This way we get 5 large classes of problems.
1. Scientific and technical. Research of the Sun, Moon and planets, space telescopes, study of the characteristics of the Earth and outer space. Testing space technology, studying the operating conditions of technology in space.
2. Economic. These are communications, meteorology, remote sensing of the Earth, navigation and others.
3. Military. What the military departments order. These are, first of all, the same economic tasks plus some specific ones, for example, missile attack warning systems, electronic reconnaissance, inspection of spacecraft of other countries.
4. Manned program. Human space flights, construction of space stations, delivery of cargo to the station. Within the framework of the manned program, the problems of all other classes are solved, but it is customary to separate it into a separate direction.
5. Launching spacecraft in the interests of other states. Such devices can be either purely commercial or launched under non-commercial (most often scientific) programs, when the customer pays by barter, for example, by research results.
In this way, we can obtain a comparative description of the distribution of the amount of work for the specified classes of tasks.
A diagram of such a distribution for the world as a whole and the leading space powers is shown in Fig. 3, where the total launch mass of the launch vehicles used to launch spacecraft operating on the specified categories of targets is chosen as an indicator of costs. It would be better to use monetary indicators, but this is impossible.
In too many cases, such data is not released due to military or commercial confidentiality concerns.
Fig. 3. Cost ratio for solving issues of space activities, %. 1 – scientific and technical, 2 – economic, 3 – military, 4 – manned, 5 – foreign customers.
The distribution shown is for the 2023 launch year only. In addition, R&D costs are not taken into account here; they are transferred to the year of completion of the relevant work. It should also be noted that the low percentage of U.S. military launches is largely offset by the Pentagon’s purchase of commercial satellite results. U.S. Department of Defense spending on space programs is growing rapidly, exceeding NASA spending for the first time this year.
WORLD SPACE MARKET
A review of the financing of space activities is complicated by the fact that different analytical studies use different methods, and a significant part of the information is closed for reasons of military and commercial secrets. Many of the funding analysis figures are the result of peer review by researchers. An indicator of the reliability of such figures is their correspondence to the observed picture of space activity and correlation with data from various sources.
We also have to put up with the fact that many economic characteristics are published with a significant time lag. This is due to the fact that reporting appears sometime after the end of the reporting period and this delay varies from country to country.
To characterize the role of space activities in the global economy, the concept of ‘World Space Market’ (WSM) is used.
The term ‘Global Space Economy’ is often used abroad.
General data on the volume, nature and role of the world space market in the economy for 2022 are given in table 1.
The Table 1 also compares data from two leading consulting firms and illustrates the magnitude of the differences between the different companies’ research results.
According to Euroconsult, the main types of customers for space products and services in the world are (data for 2022):
The lion’s share of turnover is occupied by the processing and sale of the results of satellite work, and this is mainly the commercial sector. This data clearly illustrates an unexpected fact for many: the space sector of the economy is only in a small part the creation and flight of rockets and satellites, and in a much larger part it is the use of the results of space activities. Over time Space Economy: Government funding for space has dropped from 100% to less than 25% today.
However, government funding still remains a system-forming factor that determines the country’s place in the space sector. In Fig. 4. The data on government funding of space activities of the ten leading countries in 2023 are given.
For Europe, this parameter is determined by the sum of the national budgets of European countries (without the CIS) and the financing of space activities through the European Union.
Fig. 4. Government funding of space activities in ten leading states, $ million
FINANCING OF SPACE ACTIVITIES IN RUSSIA
Russia occupies 0.8% of the WSM (Euroconsult). This figure is determined only by budgetary financing of space activities in the Russian Federation, since the volume of the commercial sector in our country is negligible. Also, to date, exports of space products and services have almost reached zero (0.1%).
In the Russian Federation, financing of space activities is determined by the Laws on the Federal Budget. These laws describe funding not only for the next year, but also for the next two years, which makes it possible to use the official forecast for three years ahead.
The main amount of funding for space activities is given in the section ‘State Program ‘Space Activities of Russia’.
In addition, the lease of the Baikonur spaceport is financed annually ($115 million) and some relatively small amounts of space costs are scattered among other budget items.
A significant amount of funding is provided within the framework of the defense order and is not disclosed in the Budget Law. It can be assessed indirectly based on a comparison of space activity for various activity goals, as well as according to data from foreign analysts.
The Federal Law ‘On the Federal Budget for 2024 and for the Planning Period of 2025 and 2026’ dated November 27,
2023 N 540-FZ determines the following expenditure figures for the State Program ‘Russian Space Activities’: 2024 – 285,950 million rubles; 2025 – 271,910 million rubles; 2026 – 258,100 million rubles.
The Figure 5 shows the share of expenses for the State Program ‘Space Activities of Russia’ in the total expenses of the Russian Federation budget. The ‘share of expenses’ parameter was chosen in order not to depend on uncertain values of inflation and the dollar exchange rate. An almost linear decline in the level of funding for the civilian sector of astronautics is noticeable. If this trend is not reversed, funding will drop to zero around 2041.
Fig. 5. Share of government funding for space activities in Russia
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN SPACE
The international cooperation plays a significant role in global space exploration. Cooperation causes a multiplier positive effect in the economics of space activities, the efficiency of space assets, and in the field of international politics.
The following areas of cooperation in space can be identified.
1. Launch of spacecraft in the interests of foreign customers.
Today in the world, only 10 states are capable of launching spacecraft into Earth orbit (or further) using a launch vehicle of their own design – the Russian Federation (since 1957, the year the first satellite was launched with its launch vehicle), the USA (since 1958), Europe (since 1965, first launched by France), Japan (since 1970), China (since 1970), India (since 1980), Israel (since 1988), Iran (since 2005), DPRK (since 2012) and South Korea (since 2013).
But there are 98 states that have or had their own satellites at the beginning of this year. Thereby, 88 states took advantage of international cooperation to go into space. The European Union is especially noteworthy in this regard. In 2023, 263 spacecraft belonging to the EU were launched into space, of which only 12 Europe launched with its own launch vehicles.
2. Mutual supplies of materials and components for space technology.
This is the most little-known sector of international cooperation. For various reasons, data on the import of materials and components for space technology is very rarely published. As an example, here is one of the largest contracts between the United States and the Russian Federation – a contract for the supply of RD-180 liquid rocket engines. It was signed in 1996 and initially envisaged the supply of 100 engines for $1 billion. The contract was completed in 2021, with 122 engines delivered (the final amount of the completed contract was not published).
3. Exchange of scientific information and joint research programs.
This is the oldest area of international cooperation. The first satellites of the USSR and the USA were launched as part of the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958), a program that united research from many countries. It can be said that most large research projects always contain elements of international cooperation. This allows the project initiator to choose the best scientific equipment in the world for his apparatus.
4. Large space projects involving two or more countries. Well-known examples of such projects are the Soyuz-Apollo project, implemented by the USSR and the USA in 1975, and the ongoing International Space Station project, in which 14 countries participate.
Currently, two international projects are being implemented to explore the Moon and its resources – the Artemis project and the International Lunar Research Station project. The first project was initiated by the United States; it envisages the creation of the Gateway lunar orbital station, landing people on the surface of the Moon (according to plans – 2026) and the creation of a Lunar base there. The second project is proposed by China, it aims to create a permanent lunar base in the 2030s, at the first stage – robotic, and then visited. It would be logical to combine efforts with these two projects, but political disagreements on Earth, as often happens, close the possibility of mutually beneficial international programs.
CONCLUSION
Even this brief overview of astronautics shows serious problems in the development of the space industry in the Russian Federation. Although Russia remains one of the top three leading space powers, current trends show a steady decline in space activity. This is especially unpleasant against the background of the rapid growth in the volume and diversity of space activities in other countries, a growth determined by the general increase in the economic efficiency of astronautics.
Of course, this situation worries the leadership of the Russian Federation.
On October 26, 2023, the President of the Russian Federation held a meeting on the development of the space industry. At the meeting, he proposed that the Government, by July 1, 2024, ‘develop and approve an appropriate national project, aiming it at creating a powerful sovereign domestic industry of space services, technologies and products’.
Vladimir Putin outlined the main elements of the future national project:
‘First. This is the establishment of serial production of spacecraft, the transition to assembly line...
Second. It is necessary to significantly, or rather, radically reduce the cost of delivering spacecraft into low-Earth orbit...
Third. ...forming a long-term order for space services...
Fourth. As in all other sectors of the economy, in the space sector it is necessary to strive to develop competition, adjust market mechanisms, and create real opportunities for private companies in the space sector to compete for government orders.
Now it’s quite difficult for them to get there, largely because government agencies, as a rule, receive services and products from Roscosmos free of charge. And of course, this practice distorts competition and deprives Roscosmos itself of the motivation to work to improve the quality of its products.
Fifth... I think it is important to develop the export of our space products and services more actively.’